This Japan Times (conservative) Editorial outlines the results of the Stern Report. It notes that rather immediate human inputs to the climate will have extreme longer term impacts:
"Another report has highlighted evidence of the serious, long-term consequences of global warming. Yet governments continue to pay only lip service to the threat. As the new study makes clear, the cost of environmental destruction will be severe -- but there is still time to avoid the worst impacts, if the world takes immediate and cooperative action.
The latest warning is from former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, who was tasked by Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer with providing an independent assessment of the economics of climate change. His conclusions are striking and simple. First, "the scientific evidence points to increasing risks of serious, irreversible impacts from climate change associated with business-as-usual paths for emissions."
The current level of greenhouse gases is nearly twice the level that existed before the Industrial Revolution, and the annual emissions rate is accelerating. As a result, there is at least a 77 percent chance -- "and perhaps up to a 99 percent chance" -- of a global average temperature rise exceeding 2 C. There is at least a 50 percent risk that temperature change will exceed 5 C.
Second, the impact of these changes -- even at the lower end of the scale -- will be severe. The report notes one-sixth of the world's population will experience water shortages; tens, perhaps hundreds, of millions of others will be threatened by rising sea levels. As much as 15 to 40 percent of species will be threatened with extinction. Humanity will not be threatened as a whole, but entire regions will be hard hit. Africa could lose one-third of its crop yield and there could be a 25 to 60 percent rise in hunger worldwide. At the high end of the spectrum, even developed countries will lose fertile lands. The Stern report estimates that the economic damage wrought by climate change could equal that caused by the Great Depression or a world war -- 5 to 20 percent of global gross domestic product.
The third conclusion is the most alarming: There is a window of opportunity to halt this disaster, but action must be taken quickly. The effect of climate change is cumulative: As Mr. Stern succinctly explains, 'the sting is in the tail.'"
You can read the whole editorial here:
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